Will Vietnam Consolidate Its Top Two Leadership Positions? | FULCRUM
Home (https://fulcrum.sg/) Articles (https://fulcrum.sg/article/) Will Vietnam Consolidate Its Top Two Leadership Positions?
Vietnam’s political landscape is poised for a significant test as the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) approaches. The focus is on whether the country’s top two leadership positions, the CPV general secretary and state president, will be consolidated. This decision will have far-reaching implications for Vietnam’s power dynamics and future leadership.
The Current Landscape
Since taking power in August 2024, General Secretary To Lam has demonstrated a strong grip on both domestic and foreign affairs. Domestically, he has swiftly implemented sweeping political and administrative reforms with minimal resistance. His strategic appointments of loyal allies, such as Tran Luu Quang as Secretary of the Ho Chi Minh City Party Committee and Nguyen Duy Ngoc as Secretary of the Hanoi Party Committee, further solidify his influence. These moves underscore his growing dominance and suggest a potential push for further power consolidation.
In foreign affairs, To Lam has been a prominent figure, leading high-profile visits that blend international representation, economic diplomacy, and strategic guidance. By personally leading these engagements, he positions himself as Vietnam’s global face, shaping the nation’s international agenda. However, his aspirations for dual roles have faced challenges. During his October 2025 trip to the UK, for instance, he was welcomed as a “Guest of Government,” indicating that partners have not fully recognized his dual role aspirations.
The Question of Consolidation
The question arises: Will To Lam seek re-election as CPV general secretary while also claiming the presidency at the upcoming Congress? Recent political signals suggest that this power consolidation is highly improbable.
Structural and Political Factors
-
Leadership Structure: In early September, the CPV Politburo issued updated regulations regarding leadership positions. The elevation of the standing member of the Secretariat from a senior to a key leadership group suggests that the current structure will be maintained, making consolidation less likely.
-
Power-Sharing Pact: The presidency is currently held by General Luong Cuong, a senior military figure. His appointment reflects a delicate balance between the public security faction (led by Lam) and the military faction (led by Cuong). Attempting to claim the presidency would disrupt this equilibrium and likely provoke military pushback.
-
Functionality and Continuity: Combining the roles would overburden a single leader, undermining party governance and state management. The separation of the positions ensures operational continuity and leadership sustainability, making consolidation impractical.
Historical Precedent and Benefits
The current power structure aligns with past precedent, where dual roles were held temporarily due to specific circumstances. Vietnam’s “five pillars” leadership model maintains a balance of power and collective leadership, avoiding political instability and policy errors. This structure may also differentiate Vietnam from other Communist countries, potentially impacting its diplomatic and political effectiveness.
Conclusion
In conclusion, despite To Lam’s ambitions, Vietnam’s top-tier power structure is likely to endure. This structure, with distinct leaders for each “pillar,” is poised to continue, independent of any future general secretary’s influence. This approach may also help maintain a balanced and stable political environment, which is crucial for Vietnam’s long-term success.